The negativity bias and Covid-19

More than ten years ago I wrote a blog about how people judge the side-effects of what someone has done. The essence was that the blame put on someone for causing negative side-effects is by far bigger than the credit s/he receives for positive side-effects, even if they balance. (see for the details my blog Praising the one who deserves it) Although it is not exactly the same, I had to think of it when I heard about the present discussion on the side-effects of the AstraZeneca anti-Covid vaccine. In fact, considering negative effects more important than positive effects is a general human phenomenon. This phenomenon is called the negativity bias. It is “the notion that, even when of equal intensity, things of a more negative nature (e.g. unpleasant thoughts, emotions, or social interactions; harmful/traumatic events) have a greater effect on one’s psychological state and processes than neutral or positive things.” (Wikipedia) This is not only so when negative and positive effects balance, but negative effects can by far dominate the positive effects even in case they are much smaller and very little in comparison to the latter. There is a tendency not only to register negative stimuli more readily but also to dwell on these events. (Cherry) The effect is the stronger if what you can lose is bigger, also in case what you can gain is very big. (Kahneman)
Here are two examples from Cherry:
- You received a performance review at work that was quite positive overall and noted your strong performance and achievements. A few constructive comments pointed out areas where you could improve, and you find yourself fixating on those remarks. Rather than feeling good about the positive aspects of your review, you feel upset and angry about the few critical comments.
- You had an argument with your significant other. Afterward, you find yourself focusing on all of your partner’s flaws. Instead of acknowledging your partner’s good points, you ruminate over all of the imperfections. Even the most trivial of faults are amplified, while positive characteristics are overlooked.
Take now the AstraZeneca case. Keep especially the first example in your mind. In order to contain the present coronavirus pandemic, in haste new vaccines have been developed. As everybody knows, medicines can have unintended side-effects and these new vaccines are no exceptions. Moreover, because of the speed that the vaccines have been developed, not all side-effects are already known. Certainly the long-term side-effects aren’t. Therefore it is important to be attentive to possibly unpleasant implications of the vaccines. As it looks at present, the negative effects of most anti-Covid vaccines are minor. An exception appears to be the AstraZeneca vaccine: After having received their jabs, some people got thrombosis and some have died of it. The chance to get it is about one in 150,000 vaccinations, they say. Probably this dramatic effect is caused by the vaccine. Shouldn’t we take the AstraZeneca vaccine because of this side-effect?
As it looks now, we can keep the coronavirus pandemic only under control with a vaccine. Several vaccines have been developed, but at the moment there is a shortage of anti-Covid vaccines and in the immediate future this will remain so. So we need the AstraZeneca vaccine for the time to come. I haven’t looked up the figures, but specialists agree that by far more people will be saved by getting this vaccine than will get thrombosis and die. “Saved” will say here that they will not die of Covid-19 or suffer from serious long-lasting nasty and life-disturbing effects caused by Covid-19, but they would have become ill, if they hadn’t received the AstraZeneca vaccine. So, from a rational point of view it’s by far more sensible to take the jab than to refuse it. Nevertheless, many people don’t want to have it just because of the negative side-effects. Although understandable, in view of what now is known about the side effects, doing so is a clear instance of the negativity bias: Although the positive effect of the AstraZeneca jab by far outbalances the negative side-effects, nevertheless for many people it’s the other way round. Paraphrasing Cherry: Rather than feeling good about the positive aspects of the AstraZeneca vaccine, you feel upset and angry about the small chance that it can harm you. The negative effects are strongly overestimated. Even so, I would say, take another vaccine if you have the choice. 

Sources
- Cherry, Kendra, “What Is the Negativity Bias?”, https://www.verywellmind.com/negative-bias-4589618
- Kahneman, Daniel, Thinking, Fast and Slow. Penguin Books, London, 2012; pp. 278-303.
- “Negativity bias”, Wikipedia, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Negativity_bias